MORNINGS WITH JON FAINE, ABC 774 RADIO - MONDAY, 30 JULY 2018

30 July 2018

ALI MOORE, HOST: Chris Bowen is the Federal Shadow Treasurer and joins us now. Chris Bowen, good morning.

CHRIS BOWEN, SHADOW TREASURER : Good morning to you Ali.

MOORE: Feeling pretty chipper are you in the Labor Party?

BOWEN: It was a good result Ali. There is no two ways about it. Malcolm Turnbull said it was a referendum, these by elections particularly Longman, were a referendum on the respective leaders and the people have spoken so of course we have a long way to go before the next Federal election but these were very good results for the Labor Party, no question about that.

MOORE: If you look at that is it just that the Newspoll is not to be believed because if it is meant to be a referendum on the leadership if you like the Newspoll results this morning havent budged.

BOWEN: Well look there will be lots more polls but there was a big poll on Saturday and it was a very good result for the Labor Party. I mean the Liberal Party were briefing just a few days before the election that they were going to win Braddon and Justine Keay together with the other Members have just been returned and I think very importantly while I understand the focus on Labor seats, Malcolm Turnbull couldnt even return Mayo, a previously safe crown jewel seat of the Liberal Party to their column. I mean that says a lot about what people think of Malcolm Turnbull and his leadership.

MOORE: So Bill Shorten now safe as houses?

BOWEN: Well I had the view that he always was as I said all the way through but now unquestionably I suspect even more so, but always was safe, always was going to lead us to the next election but it appears the Governments one point economic plan is looking very shaky indeed.

MOORE: At the same time though if you look at Longman, thats one result but what about Braddon? Is that not less comfortable for you, your primary vote was down in Braddon.

BOWEN: Well look the Member for Braddon traditionally has very low job security. It is a seat that swings very heavily and changes hands very regularly. I mean we had if you like the disadvantage of facing these by elections in some of our most marginal seats. Unlike the Government which faced them in some of their safer seats. We had, as luck would have it, our more marginal seats up for election. Justine Keay is a great Member, the people re-endorsed her on Saturday and we take these results with a great deal of thanks to the people for endorsing our plans.

We have been upfront with the Australian people about a very comprehensive economic plan, it has had its controversies. But when you look at negative gearing reform, dividend imputation reform, family trust reform, the people have looked at those policies and are voting for us. Now that gives us the opportunity come the general election to seek a mandate for big and important reforms.

On the other hand Ali, Malcolm Turnbull has a one point economic plan his corporate tax cuts and there are very senior Ministers out there briefing behind-the-scenes today that it is going to be scrapped. When you have a one point plan with no Plan B thats when a Government unravels and I suspect we are seeing the Governments economic plan unravel before us today.

MOORE: Well you would have heard as many of our listeners would have as well Mathias Cormann say that they are still committed to corporate tax cuts but quite confidently Chris Bowen, can you say that there are no lessons for you out of this? No learnings for Labor?

BOWEN: As I said at the outset Ali we have a long way to go before the next Federal election. We take nothing for granted. We have to earn the respect and the votes of not just people in the five seats but people in every seat across the country. We will continue to do that but we will continue to do it based on policy, on good policy, on bold policy and on the policy differential. Giving the people a remedy not a replica, giving them an answer to what the issues facing the Australian people are: opposing wage cuts and penalty rate cuts at a time of record low wages growth for example. Saying that there are better priorities for the money that will be spent on the corporate tax cuts, saying that there is a better plan for economic growth with our Australian Investment Guarantee.

We will continue on that, we have more policies to announce. We will continue on the very robust policy task that weve set out. Lots of people said when we announced some of those big policies that we just lost the next Federal election. Well the people of five seats spoke on Saturday and we look forward to the people of 150 seats speaking.

MOORE: I was going to say, if you look at the results to what extent do you think that we can extrapolate them out? Because really most often when it comes to by-elections it is about the local candidates and if anything it seems one of the most overwhelming senses out of these various by elections is a sense of enormous indifference or disillusionment.

BOWEN: No, I dont think I would agree with your final point. I mean every election is different but here we have a situation where Malcolm Turnbull said that this was a referendum on the two leaders, where you had a media frenzy last week about all the headlines: Pressure on Shorten, Pressure on Labor, Big Test for Shorten. Well the test has been and gone, I dont think anybody could say the Labor Party was found wanting electorally despite all the fact that-- despite the fact that Malcolm Turnbull was out there saying it was a test of his leadership and Bill Shortens. Well he set that test, he spectacularly failed it and the key question for Malcolm Turnbull today is does he stick to his one point economic plan? I mean it is the wrong plan for the nation in our view but its his only plan, its all he has got. If he drops this plan, what is the point of Malcolm Turnbull? What is the point of the Turnbull Government?

MOORE: How did everybody get it so wrong do you think Chris Bowen? There was so muchI mean in many ways we are sort of back to where we started such a long time ago but there was so much chatter about these elections and in the end sort of none of it came to pass.

BOWEN: Well we will always quietly confident but never took it for granted. At the beginning of the election there is no doubt we were up against it in this by election campaign. Remembering that Malcolm Turnbull and his Government extended this by election campaign enormously and made it a very long one to deprive the Labor Party of those seats in Parliament and deprived those electorates of their voice in the Parliament for several weeks of Parliamentary sittings.

Look Ive always been a sceptic about robo-polling, Ive never thought it was particularly accurate and I think we are seeing more and more of that in the political commentary and people need to bear that in mind. I think when people get called from an automated polling service they pay it the respect it deserves which is not very much. But look, on the ground our feedback was very strong, very solid that our plans were being well responded to, that people understood the policy differences, that they respected the work of our MPs particularly Susan Lamb and Justine Keay, and Josh Wilson of course, respected the work of Patrick Gorman the new candidate for Perth who will be a great and terrific Member.

And I have to say good on Rebekha Sharkie as well who withstood-- I can tell you for a fact the Liberals were saying at the beginning of this campaign that Mayo was in the bag, that they could not lose it. Well they took the people of Mayo for granted, they took the traditional Liberal Party voters who had been disillusioned for granted and if Malcolm Turnbull cant deliver that seat which has never been lost before to the Liberal Party column, no wonder

MOORE: Well until the last election when it went to Rebekha Sharkie.

BOWEN: Of course, yeah sure but it was a historical anomaly and good on her for holding a seat against the odds.

MOORE: Mayo had a lot of issues though didnt it I guess that arent necessarily typical of broader electorates and also a candidate that wasnt a local until relatively recently?

BOWEN: Well again I think that goes to arrogance. I think that goes to Liberal Party arrogance that they could just impose somebody and all due respect to her, Ive never met her Im sure shes a fine person but she moved out of the seat 20 years ago just to swan back in and say This seat is going to be mine. And I can tell you as I said at the outset they were very arrogantly claiming Mayo as theirs. They said that a Downer could not be defeated in Mayo and it would return to normalcy. The people of Mayo had a different idea.

MOORE: Well Chris Bowen thank you very much for talking to us this morning, its going to be an interesting-- well the question is an interesting how long, whats your hot tip for the election date if not month?

BOWEN: Well we dont know. We will be ready. I mean if I was Malcolm Turnbull after those results I wouldnt be rushing but

MOORE: What do you reckon? Next May?

BOWEN: Well as you know there is a Victorian election in November, theres a New South Wales election in March so that reduces the windows of opportunity for him but look we can speculate all we like, we will be ready whenever its held and we will be ready with the strong and robust policies that we have already been announcing and we will continue to announce. It will be a policy based election and thats a good thing for the country.

MOORE: Chris Bowen, thanks for talking to us this morning.

BOWEN: Always a pleasure Ali.