Bilateralism Time to move beyond the cliched three cs of cricket, Commonwealth and curry and invite India to join the regional trade grouping.
The failure two years ago to conclude a free trade agreement with India should not be held against the Turnbull Government,but it now makes it even more important that we deepen Australias engagement with the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
While it may seem unusual for an opposition to be so generous to a government failing to meet its own benchmarks, the fact is that this was always going to be hard and their mistake was making an unachievable commitment in the first place, not failing to achieve it.
This doesnt mean, however, that further efforts shouldnt be made to deepen our levels of economic engagement. On the contrary, deepening Australias engagement with India is even more important given that the steps towards the free trade agreement came to nought.
Notoriously, Australias bilateral relationship with India has been a bipartisan stop-start affair, with good intentions by leaders from both sides giving way to platitudes about cricket, curry and Commonwealth. But we know the three cs arent enough for deeper engagement: the differences in culture, outlook and levels of development have meant meaningful and sustained engagement has been very hard to come by. We cant afford to let this sort of sporadic engagement, particularly in relation to our economies, continue.
Indias forecast annual growth rate was recently downgraded to 6.5 per cent for 2017-18. It is remarkable that this impressive figure is the lowest they will have had for four years. It still leaves them positioned to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world and on track to become the worlds third largest economy by 2030.
Indias demographics are a positive, and despite the disruption caused by the abolition of large-denomination banknotes and a national GST, the Modi government still appears to be committed to its path of cautious economic reform.
So Australia needs to find ways to overcome the history of short-lived bursts of deeper engagement. There is some scope for optimism.
The importance of the increased Indian migration to Australia should not be underestimated. India is now in the top two source countries of permanent migrants to Australia every year. We now have a large diaspora of highly skilled and business savvy Australians of Indian heritage. This group of people is both a resource for Australia to tap in to, and a vehicle to deeper engagement less dependent on the whims of leaders of the day. As the Australian Council of Learned Academies has argued:
The question of how to realise Australias diaspora advantage in the global circulation of ideas, knowledge, people and capital is of critical importance. Isolated, piecemeal and ad hoc efforts are no longer sufficient. Australia needs to develop a strategic national approach to recognise the resources of the Asia business diasporas and develop mechanisms that enable them to contribute simultaneously to the economic interests of Australia and their country of origin.
To this end, one of the initiatives federal Labor announced under the auspices of our FutureAsia package late last year was a government-wide program to ensure we are fully engaging with and utilising Asian diasporas in Australia. Engaging better with the Indian diaspora will be a key early priority of the initiative.
Another initiative Australia can take is to assist India in its ambition to join Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC). Australia was once reluctant to see India join APEC because it was feared that with too many members APEC would lose focus. But times have changed. The creation of APEC was too important an Australian achievement to see it wither on the vine, and the inclusion of this fast-growing Asian economy could help reinvigorate the APEC agenda.
This is not a one-way street, though.
APEC will rightly be the focus for regional free trade discussions. And our APEC colleagues would be rightly sceptical of Indias ambition to join if India was likely to scuttle the move towards an APEC-wide free trade agreement.
Working together to allay these fears would be a worthwhile initiative for Australia, with a much more integrated relationship in prospect. It would also potentially strengthen the hand of freetrade advocates within the Indian government, who have a very hard row to hoe.
Ill be joining the third annual Australia-India Leadership Dialogue in New Delhi late in January, just as I have participated in the first two. Labors trade spokesman Penny Wong will be joining me.
Its a very worthwhile track two diplomatic initiative where, no doubt, we will be discussing these and other important ideas to deepen our engagement. And deepen our engagement we must.
The importance of the increased Indian migration should not be under-estimated.